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竞选活动 Although presidential elections occur every 4 years, many people feel that they do not have a true understanding of how presidential campaigns operate. 虽然总统竞争每四年举行一次，但是许多人感到对竞选大战的运作没有真正的理解。 The winner in the November general election is almost certain to be either the Republican or the Democratic nominee. A minor-party or independent candidate, such as George Wallace in 1968, John Anderson in 1980, or Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, can draw votes away from the major-party nominees but stands almost no chance of defeating them.11 月份大选的获胜者几乎肯定是共和党或民主党的提名者。小党派或独立候选人，如1968年的乔治·华莱士，1980年的约翰·安德森或1992年和1996年的罗丝·佩罗，可能从大党的提名人那里拉走了一些选票，但几乎没有人可能战胜他们。 A major-party nominee has the critical advantage of support from the party faithful. Earlier in the twentieth century, this support was so firm and steady that the victory of the stronger party's candidate was almost a certainty. Warren G. Harding accepted the 1920 Republican nomination at his Ohio home, stayed there throughout most of the campaign, and won a full victory simply because most of the voters of his time were Republicans. Party loyalty has declined in recent decades, but more than two-thirds of the nation's voters still identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, and most of them support their party's presidential candidate. Even Democrat George McGovern, who had the lowest level of party support among recent nominees, was backed in 1972 by nearly 60 percent of his party's voters. 大党提名人具有得到党的忠实信徒支持这一关键的优势。20世纪早期，这种支持是如此坚定、可靠，以至于较大党派候选人的胜利几乎是肯定的。华伦·G·哈定在俄亥俄州的家乡接受了1920年共和党的提名，并且在竞选大战大部分时间里都呆在俄亥俄。他大获全胜只是因为当时投票的大部分是共和党党员。在近几十年内，党员对党派的忠诚削弱了，但2/3强的国家的投票人依然认为他们自己是共和党人或民主党人，他们大多支持自己党派的总统候选人。即使是近年来拥有最低水平党派支持的民主人乔治·麦戈尔，在1972年仍得到了近60％本党派投票人的支持。 Presidential candidates act strategically. In deciding whether to pursue a course of action, they try to estimate its likely impact on the voters. During the 1992 campaign, a sign on the wall of Clinton's headquarters in Little Rock read, "The economy, Stupid." The slogan was the idea of James Carville, Clinton's chief strategist, and was meant as a reminder to the candidate and the staff to keep the campaign focused on the nation's slow-moving economy, which ultimately was the issue that defeated Bush. As in 1980, when Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan during tough economic times, the voters were motivated largely by a desire for change. 总统候选人的行为颇讲究策略。在决定是否遵循一项行动方针时，他们要尽量估计一下该方针对投票人可能具有的影响。在1992年竞选大战期间，小石城克林顿竞选总部的墙上有一个牌子，上面写着"经济、蠢货"。这条标语是克林顿的首席战略詹姆斯·卡维尔的，主意，作为候选人和竞选班子全体成员的警世语，使这场竞选大战集中在国家缓慢增涨的经济上，这成为最后击败布什的策略。如同在1980年的经济困难时期，吉米·卡特输给了罗纳德·里根，投票人的积极性主要来源于意图改变的愿望。 
候选人尽办突出表现一种强有力的领导形象。然而，投票人是否接受这一形象，比起候选人的个人特点来更要依靠外部因素。在1991年海湾战争后，布什的支持率达到91％，这是本世纪30年代开始民意测验以来的最高记录。一年后，因国民经济陷入困境，布什的支持率降低到40％以下。布什尽力去激起人们对他在战争时期强有力的领导形象的回忆，但投标票人依然关心经济问题。 The candidates' strategies are shaped by many considerations, including the constitutional provision that each state shall have electoral votes equal in number to its representation in Congress. Each state thus gets two electoral votes for its Senate representation and a varying number of electoral votes depending on its House representation. Altogether, there are 538 electoral votes (including three for the District of Columbia, even though it has no voting representatives in Congress). To win the presidency, a candidate must receive at least 270 votes, an electoral majority. 候选人的策略的形成要考虑到许多因素，包括宪法的这一条款：每个州具有的选举人的票数与其在国会中的代表人数相同。因此，每个州因其参议院代表得到两张选举人票，依靠其众议院代表得到不同数量的选举人票。总共有538张选举人票。要赢得总统职务，一个候选人必须得到选举的多数票，即270张选票。 Candidates are particularly concerned with winning the states which have the largest population, such as California (with 54 electoral votes), New York (33), Texas (32), Florida (25), Pensylvania (23), lllinois (22), and Ohio (21). Victory in the eleven largest states alone would provide an electoral majority, and presidential candidates therefore spend most of their time campaigning in those states. Clinton recived only 43 percent of the popular vote in 1992, compared with Bush's 38 percent and Perot's 19 percent; but Clinton won in states that gave him an overwhelming 370 electoral votes, compared with 168 for Bush and none for Perot. 候选人特别关注是否能赢得人口最多的州，如加利福尼亚州（有54张选举人票）、纽约州（33张）、得克萨斯州（32张）、佛罗里达州（25张）、宾夕法尼亚州（23张）、伊里诺伊斯州（22张）和俄亥俄州（21张）。仅在11个最大的州的胜利就可提供选举的大多数，因此总统候选人在那些州花费大部分时间进行活动。1992年，克林顿只得到43％的大众选票，相比之下布什得到38％，佩罗19％。但克林顿获取支持的州给了压倒优势的370张选举人票，相比之下给了布什168张，佩罗一张也没有。 The American Two-party System 美国的两党制 No one now living in the United States can remember when the contest began between the Democratic and the Republican parties. It has been going on for more than a century, making it one of the oldest political rivalries in the world. 现在生活在美国的人没人能记起民主党和共和党之间的竞争是什么时候开始的。这种竞争进行了一个多世纪，是世界上最早的政治竞争之一。 
美国的政治体制是两党制的典型范例。当我们说美国有两党制时，并不是指美国只有两个政党。通常约有十几个政党提名总统候选人。我们之所以称之为两党制，是因为有两个大党派和许多小党派。通常小党派合在一起在全国选举是得票低于全国所投票数的5％。 The democratic and Republican parties are the largest and most competitive organizations in the American community. The organize the electorate very simply by maintaining the two-party system. Americans almost inevitably become Democrats or Republicans because there is usually no other place for them go to. Moreover, because the rivalry of these parties is very old, most Americans know where they belong in the system. As a consequence of the dominance of the major parties, most elected officials are either Republicans or Democrats. Attempts to break up this old system have been made in every presidential election in the past one hundred years, but the system has survived all assaults. 在美国社会里，民主党和共和党是最大和最有竞争力的组织。他们通过维持两党制，很轻松地组织选民。因为通常没有其他选择，美国人几乎无可避免地成为民主党员或共和党员。此外，因为这些党的竞争历史很久，多数美国人知道自己属于两党中的哪一派。作为两大党占优势的结果，多数当选官员不是共和党员就是民主党员。在过去的100年里，每年的总统选举中都进行了一些打破旧体制的尝试，但这种体制经受住了所有的攻击继续存在。 How does it happen that the two-party system is so strongly rooted in American politics? The explanation is probably to be found in the way elections are conducted. In the United States, unlike countries with a parliamentary system of government, we elect not only the President, but a large number of other officials, about 800,000 of them. We also elect congressmen from single-member districts. For example, we elect 435 members of the House of Representatives from 435 districts (there are a few exceptions), one member for each district. Statistically, this kind of election favors the major parties. The system of elections makes it easy for the major parties to maintain their dominant position, because they are likely to win more than their share of the offices. 两党制是如何能如此坚实地扎根于美国政治中的呢？答案可能就在选举的运作方式中。美国不同于政府议会制国家，我们不仅选举总统，而且还选举许多官员，他们大约有80万人。国会议员也是从每区一票的选举中选出的。例如：我们从435个选区选举435名参议员，每一个选区选举一名参议员。从统计学上来讲，这种选举对大党派有利。选举制度使大党轻而易举地保持着他们的统治地位，因为他们赢得的席位可能比他们应得的份额多。 One of the great consequences of the system is that it produces majorities automatically. Because there are only two competiors in the running, it is almost inevitable that one will receive a majority. Moreover, the system tends slightly to exaggerate the victory of the winning party. This is not always true, but the strong tendency to produce majorities is built into the system. 这种制度的最大结果就是它自动地产生了多数党。因为只有两个竞争者参加竞选，几乎可以肯定其中一个将赢得多数。而且，这种制度似乎有些夸大获胜党的胜利。虽然并不总是如此。但是产生多数党的巨大倾向在这种制度中形成了。 In over 200 years of constitutional history, Americans have learned much about the way in which the system can be managed so as to make possible the peaceful transfer of power from one party to the other. At the level of presidential elections, the party in power has been overturned by the party out of power nineteen times, almost once a decade. In the election of 1860, the political system broke down, and the Civil War, the worst disaster in American history, resulted. Our history justifies our confidence in the system but also shows that it is not foolproof. 在200多年的宪法史中，美国人对两党制的运作方法已经有很多了解，以使政权能够和平地从一个政党移交到另一个政党。在总统选举中，执政党已被在野党击败了19次，几乎每十年一次。在1860年的选举中，这种政治制度中断了，结果导致了南北战争――美国历史上最大的灾难。历史证明我们有理由对这一制度保持信心，但历史也表明这一制度不是万无一失的。 
第二大党能在失败下继续生存，是因为在统计上夸大获胜党的获胜，这能够更有力地支持第二大党对第三、第四、第五党派的对抗。因此，失败的大党能够保持在反对派中的垄断。第二大党相对于第三党派有巨大的优势，它是唯一可能击败执政党的党派，从而能够吸引强烈反对执政党的每一个党派的支持。只要第二大党能够垄断击败执政党的运动，它就是重要的，因为迟早它肯定能上台执政。 Another consequence of the two-party system is that whereas minor parties are likely to identify themselves with special interests or special programs and thus take extreme positions, the major parties are so large that they tend to be moderate. Evidence of the moderation of the major parties is that much business is conducted across party lines. What happens when the Democrats control one house of Congress and the Republicans control the other? About the same volume of legislation is passed as when one party controls both houses, although some important legislation is likely to be blocked temporarily. It is possible to carry on the work of the government even when party control is divided because party differences are not fundamental. 两党制的另一个结果是：鉴于小党派可能把自己与特殊的利益和特殊的纲领认同为一，因而有可能采取极端立场，而大党很强大所以倾向于温和。大党温和倾向的证据是许多事务都是超越党派界限进行。当民主党控制国会的一个院而共和党控制另一个院时，会发生什么呢？像一个党控制国会两院一样，虽然一些重要法规可能被搁置，大约相同卷册的法规会得到批准。由于党派的分歧不是根本的，即使在两个党控制不同部门时，政府工作仍然能够进行。
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